Orange County Real Estate in 2025: Is the Market Shifting or Just Taking Its Time?
Heritage Coast is hear to help make sense of the noise.
Headlines come and go, but your real estate decisions deserve grounded, local expertise. And we’re here for that.
If you’ve been following the housing market, Orange County real estate feels like it’s teetering on the edge. On one hand, prices are still technically rising year-over-year. On the other, homes are sitting longer, affordability remains strained, and new developments are sparking heated debate.
In Costa Mesa, Redfin reported that the median home price in July 2025 reached approximately $1.6 million, an 8.8% increase from the year before. At the same time, the pace of sales has slowed considerably, with the average home taking 61 days to sell compared to just 32 days a year ago. The numbers tell a clear story: demand is still there, but buyers are taking their time.
The county as a whole is showing signs of cooling. According to data from Attom, home sales in Orange County have fallen 31% over the past three years, a striking drop that points to how sharply higher borrowing costs and prices have reshaped activity. Still, prices have mostly held steady. Attom noted that the median selling price in March 2025 was $1.2 million, up 4.3% year-over-year. It’s a reminder that fewer sales don’t automatically mean falling values, at least not yet.
National trends are adding another wrinkle. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that as of the week ending September 5, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.49%, the lowest level since October of last year. Freddie Mac confirmed the trend just days later, announcing that for the week ending September 11, 2025, the rate had slipped further to 6.35%. Lower borrowing costs had an immediate impact: mortgage applications nationwide rose 9.2% in a single week, the biggest jump in more than three years. The surge included a 12.2% increase in refinance applications and a 6.6% increase in purchase applications.
Closer to home, conversations about housing supply are heating up. This summer, the Los Angeles Times reported that the Costa Mesa City Council approved a 142-unit ownership housing project at the former Trinity Broadcasting Network site, with a small portion reserved for very low-income households. In a city where about 60% of residents rent, the development is being hailed as a step toward ownership opportunities. At the same time, state officials are considering a proposal to redevelop the Fairview Developmental Center site into 4,000 homes—a plan that could house around 10,000 people. See our video about that, here! While ambitious, the idea has been met with resistance from locals worried about traffic, infrastructure, and preserving Costa Mesa’s community character.
So where does all of this leave us? The data suggests a market that is cooling from its pandemic-era frenzy but not collapsing. Prices in Costa Mesa and Orange County remain elevated, supported by tight supply and the region’s ongoing desirability. Buyers, however, have more leverage than they did a year ago, and sellers must be more strategic in pricing and presentation.
At Heritage Coast, we live and breathe this market every day. If you’re considering buying or selling in Costa Mesa or anywhere in Orange County, we’d love to help you make sense of the numbers and the narratives behind them. Headlines come and go, but your real estate decisions deserve grounded, local expertise. And we’re here for that.